On September 6, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released data showing that the global manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers' index) in August was 48.3%, up 0.4 percentage points from July, and rose for two consecutive months. China Logistics Information Center analyst Wu Wei told the Securities Daily reporter that the index change shows that the global manufacturing industry in August has rebounded from July, but the index is still at a low level of about 48%, the global economy shows a weak repair situation, the overall tightening environment has not changed, and the pressure of demand contraction still exists. Wu Wei said that from the trend of new export orders of various countries, the new export order index of China, the United States, Japan and other major countries remained at a low level in August. From the perspective of the trade environment, there are still many uncertainties such as inflation pressure, financial market risks and debt risks, and the global economy will continue to grow at a low rate.
Data show that in August, the Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from July, 2 consecutive months of month-on-month rise, 8 consecutive months in more than 50%, showing that the Asian manufacturing industry continues to grow steadily. From the perspective of major countries, although China's manufacturing PMI is still below 50%, it has risen for three consecutive months, and the momentum of recovery has been further consolidated. India's manufacturing sector maintained strong growth, with manufacturing PMI rising from July and above 58%; From the perspective of major ASEAN countries, Indonesia's manufacturing industry maintained rapid growth, PMI remained above 53%, and Vietnam's manufacturing industry ended the trend of below 50% for five consecutive months, rising to 50.5%.
In the Americas, in August, the manufacturing PMI in the Americas was 47.9%, up 0.9 percentage points from July, rising for two consecutive months, but running below 50% for 10 consecutive months, showing that the manufacturing industry in the Americas has recovered in the past two months, but has not yet gotten rid of the trend of weak operation. "Although the current U.S. manufacturing industry has recovered from July, the demand is still relatively depressed, and the overall trend is still weak and volatile." Wu Wei said that the United States continues to face a dilemma between curbing inflation and economic recovery. The US monetary policy has not changed the tightening trend, and the Federal Reserve does not rule out the possibility of further interest rate hikes. The Fed's continued interest rate hike may continue to quell inflationary pressure, but it will also lead to a downward economic downturn and even face the risk of a "hard landing."
